Possible scenario
Oil Infrastructure Hit
25% Chance
A material but still limited risk is that new attacks again target Abqaiq, Ras Tanura, or pipelines linked to Saudi exports. Even minor confirmed damage would quickly lift crude prices because the prior Abqaiq attack already established a credible threat to Saudi supply resilience.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.