Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
38% Chance
Netanyahu authorizes a narrow preemptive operation against Iranian nuclear or missile infrastructure, likely using standoff weapons and cyber support. Israel frames the action as necessary to disrupt an imminent Iranian strike while trying to keep the operation below the threshold of full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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