Possible scenario
Iranian-Led Attack
18% Chance
The warning proves accurate and Iran or its allied groups move first, forcing Israel into defensive and retaliatory operations. This would be more destabilizing than a contained Israeli alert because it widens the theater to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, or the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.