Possible scenario
Alert Without Attack
32% Chance
The security chiefs' meeting produces heightened readiness but no immediate Israeli strike. Netanyahu keeps military options open while the U.S. and European governments push for de-escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy -0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.