Possible scenario
U.S. Military Response
25% Chance
Washington may respond militarily because the attack follows repeated strikes despite U.S. escorts and now involves missing sailors. The likely response would be calibrated against IRGC drone, missile, or surveillance assets rather than a broad campaign against Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Consumer Services -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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