Possible scenario
Limited Tanker War
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued Iranian harassment of commercial tankers without an immediate closure of Hormuz. The IRGC has already claimed multiple tanker attacks, and releasing footage suggests Tehran wants deterrent messaging while avoiding a full-scale U.S. war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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