Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
Regional mediators could move quickly because tanker attacks threaten Asian energy buyers and Gulf exporters alike. Tehran may use the released footage as leverage, then accept a pause if it extracts limited concessions or avoids U.S. strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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