Possible scenario
Sanctions Fight Escalates
25% Chance
If the court finds the apology insufficient, the case could shift from compliance to accountability for violating a judicial order. This would raise legal and political risk for DOJ and OMB officials, though the immediate economic footprint remains limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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