Possible scenario
Court-Supervised Compliance
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Justice Department moves quickly to show full compliance with the judge's order after apologizing for the delay. The court keeps jurisdiction, demands documentation from DOJ and the Office of Management and Budget, but avoids escalating to contempt if the ads have actually ceased.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.