Possible scenario
Democratic House Gain
38% Chance
Republicans' $500 million ad push fails to change the national environment enough to save vulnerable House seats. Democrats benefit from Trump’s weak approval and a persistent generic-ballot lead, while the Senate map still favors Republicans.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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