Possible scenario
Democratic Full Upset
24% Chance
The GOP ad advantage proves insufficient against an anti-Trump midterm wave. Democrats win the House and narrowly take the Senate by defeating Republican candidates in one or more of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine, or Georgia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Technology -0.7%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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