Possible scenario
GCAP Stays Three-Nation
18% Chance
The UK, Japan and Italy may decide the cost of adding Germany is too high for the Tempest schedule and governance structure. Germany would then be offered limited cooperation or redirected toward a separate European solution.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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