Possible scenario
Administrative Compromise Emerges
18% Chance
Rather than a clean legal victory for either side, NIH, HHS, and OMB create a triage process that releases grants in batches. This avoids an immediate systemwide funding cliff but leaves universities and research suppliers managing uncertainty into the next fiscal cycle.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
Tickers
- A-1.0%
- TMO-0.8%
- BIO.B-0.7%
- DHR-0.6%
- RVTY-0.5%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.