Possible scenario
Supply Shock Escalates
25% Chance
Physical crude shortages worsen as Red Sea disruption, low inventories, and OPEC+ discipline keep prompt barrels scarce. The price move becomes a broader inflation and growth shock rather than a temporary squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
- Consumer Services -3.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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