Possible scenario
Demand Destruction Arrives
25% Chance
The price spike starts to ration demand before producers can add supply. China, India, Europe, and fuel-intensive industries reduce spot purchases, shifting the market narrative from shortage to growth risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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