Possible scenario
Coordinated Supply Relief
35% Chance
Governments and producers move to prevent the oil spike from damaging global growth. The most likely stabilizing path is a mix of IEA coordination, pressure on OPEC+ members, temporary sanctions flexibility, and accelerated non-OPEC cargo redirection.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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