Possible scenario
Trump Blitz Backfires
15% Chance
The nightly rallies sharpen the midterm into a referendum on Trump, which helps Democrats with independents and college-educated suburban voters. Maine and Michigan become symbols of Republican overexposure rather than late GOP momentum.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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