Possible scenario
GOP Narrows Midterm Gap
40% Chance
Trump's nightly appearances help consolidate Republican turnout in states where Senate and governor races have tightened, especially Maine and Michigan. Democrats retain a structural House advantage, but the GOP improves its odds of limiting losses and protecting the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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