Possible scenario
Democratic Edge Survives
35% Chance
The rallies energize the Republican base but do not materially change the national environment. Democratic candidates continue to benefit from anti-Trump turnout, especially in competitive House districts and Michigan suburbs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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