Possible scenario
US-Led Maritime Enforcement
25% Chance
Washington responds to Iran's claim by organizing naval escorts and challenging restrictions on commercial passage. This raises the chance of incidents but may also reopen traffic if Iran avoids direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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