Possible scenario
Russian-Brokered De-escalation
35% Chance
Moscow uses its Gulf Peace Initiative to create a face-saving channel between Tehran, Gulf capitals, and Washington. Iran does not concede U.S. claims about Hormuz, but it allows limited shipping to resume while negotiations continue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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