Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Attacks
40% Chance
The most likely path is a strengthened escort-and-mine-clearance campaign that reduces but does not eliminate IRGC harassment. Washington, Singapore, the UK, and Gulf states prioritize keeping traffic moving while avoiding direct strikes on Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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