Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Singapore's crew evacuation without deaths gives mediators a window to argue against escalation. Oman, Qatar, China, and the UAE push for a temporary pause in IRGC attacks in exchange for restraint by US-led forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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