Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
25% Chance
Regional intermediaries push Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban toward a security understanding that reduces cross-border strikes. This outcome is plausible because China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all prefer preventing another destabilizing war on Afghanistan’s borders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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