Contained Border Campaign

Pakistan continues intermittent air and artillery strikes against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan targets inside eastern Afghanistan, while the Taliban government limits its response to protests and selective border fire. This is the most likely path because both Islamabad and Kabul have incentives to avoid a full interstate war, but neither can easily halt militant activity along the Durand Line.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.