Possible scenario
Restrictive Localization Measures
15% Chance
Trump escalates from rhetoric to coercive measures that discourage U.S. firms from building critical AI infrastructure abroad. This would create near-term uncertainty for Google and other hyperscalers, particularly if chips, federal contracts, or tax treatment become part of the policy debate.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- GOOG-2.1%
- CEG+0.8%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.