Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation
27% Chance
The Houthis could use the battlefield reversal to restore deterrence and signal that Red Sea traffic remains vulnerable. This would revive memories of the 2023-2025 shipping disruptions, though the initial market reaction would depend on whether ships are actually targeted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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