Possible scenario
Coalition Regroups
20% Chance
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces may reorganize after the failed push and try to regain momentum with heavier air and drone support. The probability is lower because the Houthis have just demonstrated stronger-than-expected defensive depth.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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