Possible scenario
Limited Cable Disruption
25% Chance
A gray-zone incident damages or disrupts one or two cables, with Iran denying responsibility and blaming maritime traffic or technical faults. Regional latency rises, but traffic is partly rerouted through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India, and Red Sea routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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