Possible scenario
Coercive Bargaining Holds
45% Chance
Iran uses the IRGC threat to extract leverage over cable-routing approvals and fees rather than immediately cutting infrastructure. This is the most likely path because Tehran has already signaled a regulatory and revenue-seeking strategy around Hormuz cables.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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