Possible scenario
Russian Outbreak Widens
15% Chance
Russia's investigation finds additional exposures tied to the anti-plague institute and hospital quarantine network. Neighboring states respond more aggressively, making the event a regional public-health and border-control shock rather than a purely local incident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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