Possible scenario
Federal Stay Holds
40% Chance
The Ninth Circuit's order remains in force while California's appeal proceeds, leaving DHS and ICE free from the state's officer-ID mandate. This is the most likely near-term path because federal intergovernmental-immunity and supremacy arguments are strong at the emergency-stay stage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO+1.3%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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