Possible scenario
Rate relief arrives
20% Chance
Softer inflation data and slower growth push Treasury yields lower, easing the interest burden on floating-rate borrowers. Distressed balances remain high, but the market begins pricing a less severe default cycle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Finance +0.8%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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