Possible scenario
Reconciliation Increase Passes
45% Chance
Senate Republicans use budget reconciliation to move the $4 trillion debt-limit increase with a simple majority, avoiding a Democratic filibuster. House GOP leaders align with the Senate plan because the alternative is a renewed default deadline and market backlash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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