Possible scenario
Orderly Staff Reset
45% Chance
President Lee Jae-myung treats Kang Hoon-sik's resignation as a contained Blue House personnel reset rather than a broader governing crisis. The presidential office tightens vetting procedures and moves quickly to reassure Democratic Party lawmakers after the failed Lee Jin-sook and Kang Sun-woo nominations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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