Possible scenario
Broader Office Shakeup
15% Chance
Kang's departure exposes wider complaints inside the Democratic Party about message discipline and personnel screening. Lee responds with a broader secretariat reshuffle or faces opposition-led scrutiny into how the failed nominations were handled.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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