Possible scenario
Results Remain Disputed
15% Chance
The election produces no clear Senate-control answer on election night, with at least one decisive race headed to a runoff, recount or extended tabulation. This is plausible because several contests are clustered near the margin and the Trump tour heightens partisan scrutiny of ballot counting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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