Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Narrowly
33% Chance
Trump’s seven-state swing helps consolidate Republican turnout in enough tossup races to offset Democratic polling strength. Democrats make gains, but the GOP keeps control through wins in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and at least one northern battleground.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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