Possible scenario
Democrats Take Senate
42% Chance
Trump’s tour fails to reverse late Democratic momentum in the most competitive Senate races. Democrats hold Jon Ossoff’s Georgia seat and pick up enough Republican-held or open seats to secure a narrow majority despite a difficult map.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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