Possible scenario
US-Ukraine Rift Deepens
23% Chance
President Trump responds to Zelenskyy's refusal by threatening restrictions on intelligence sharing, air-defense deliveries, or financial support. The rupture does not immediately end US backing, but it raises doubts about Ukraine's medium-term war capacity and increases geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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