Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
20% Chance
Moscow retaliates against Ukraine's intensified refinery campaign by targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, ports, or cross-border logistics. This creates a sharper geopolitical shock, especially if attacks affect Black Sea trade or raise winter power-system risks in Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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