Possible scenario
Heavy sporting sanction
40% Chance
The most likely path is a severe but survivable domestic sanction: a large points deduction, fine, and compliance monitoring rather than automatic removal from the Premier League. This reflects the scale of 114 proven charges while avoiding the operational and legal chaos of expulsion.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
- MANU+2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.