Possible scenario
Asian Price War
40% Chance
Saudi Aramco's cut becomes the opening move in a broader competition for Asian refinery market share. Weak Chinese imports, high Saudi loadings, and OPEC+ supply additions keep buyers in control, pushing spot crude benchmarks lower.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- XOM-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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