Possible scenario
Diplomacy Freezes
38% Chance
Iran uses the UN meeting to harden its public position after the U.S.-Israeli strikes, while Washington insists Tehran must accept tighter nuclear limits first. This is the most likely path because both sides have incentives to avoid immediate full-scale war but little political room to compromise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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