Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation
27% Chance
Iran avoids a direct strategic exchange with the United States but permits limited retaliation by allied militias or through calibrated missile, drone, and cyber activity. This path lets Tehran answer the strikes while trying to avoid a U.S. campaign against the regime itself.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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