Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
22% Chance
Despite harsh public language, intermediaries such as Qatar and Oman reopen channels between Washington and Tehran. This remains plausible because Iran may want sanctions relief and regime security while the U.S. may want to prevent a prolonged oil and military crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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