Prolonged Contained Attrition

The most likely path is continued Israeli operations across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen-linked targets and residual Iranian networks without a decisive new front opening. The 100,000-target figure reinforces the scale of the campaign but is largely backward-looking, so markets treat it as confirmation of a persistent rather than suddenly worsening conflict.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.