Possible scenario
Iran Deterrence Tested
25% Chance
Given Israel's March 2026 strikes across Iran and the continued proxy war, Tehran may feel pressure to reassert deterrence. The base case within this branch is calibrated proxy retaliation rather than immediate direct interstate war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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