Possible scenario
Ceasefire Momentum Returns
18% Chance
The scale of destruction and anniversary politics could renew pressure on Israel, Hamas and mediators to reach a limited humanitarian and hostage arrangement. This scenario is less likely than continued attrition but plausible if the US prioritizes de-escalation after the headline cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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