Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
15% Chance
Iran-aligned groups treat the killings as part of a broader Israeli campaign following the earlier Beirut strike against Islamic Jihad leadership. The most likely spillover is calibrated fire from Lebanon or Syria, though a smaller risk involves the Houthis or Iraqi militias joining the response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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